Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
