Donald Trump's Ukraine Peace Initiative Is Seen As a Advantage to Russia's Leader

At first, Trump gave the impression to adopt a strong stance regarding the Ukrainian conflict. Following issuing threats of "severe consequences" in August should Vladimir Putin continued hindering ceasefire negotiations, Trump eventually imposed considerable restrictions on Russia's biggest oil companies, these major energy companies. This move substantially hindered Putin's ability to support his military invasion in the region.

Yet, through his latest 28-point peace plan for the conflict, which was developed by US and Russian officials excluding Ukrainian or EU involvement, he has clearly returned to his Russia-friendly stance.

Rewarding Military Action

This proposal would essentially favor Putin for invading a sovereign nation while putting the country's democracy in danger. Although bold proclamations that "The nation's autonomy will be affirmed", large portions of the plan effectively compromise that very sovereignty. What represents a Moscow's wish would certainly be a catastrophe for the nation.

Reflecting his corporate experience, Trump continues to consider the war as a simple land disagreement, implying ceding Russia a part of Ukraine's land will please the ruler. But, Putin's military campaign is not simply about dominating a damaged region of economically weakened territory in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about Ukraine's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's obvious intention to weaken it so it no longer serves as an enticing model for the Russian people of the democratic government that his deepening authoritarian rule prevents them.

Territorial Concessions

Although keeping in status the currently split regions of these areas, the plan would compel Ukraine to give up all of Donetsk province. Aside from favoring Russia with territory that its military have been unable to seize in over a ten years of warfare, this giveaway would render Ukrainian military defenses dangerously weakened.

The area is the location of Ukraine's highly-touted "fortress belt", the fortified protective structures that are a critical obstacle to invading forces. Trump would have Ukraine leave these defenses, giving Russian forces a unobstructed way to the capital should he later choose to resume the conflict.

Armed Forces Restrictions

Then, in a step that would enable renewed hostilities more feasible for the Russian military, the plan would require the nation to diminish the size of its military from their existing approximately 800,000 personnel to a limit of this lower number. Notably, the plan places no equivalent limits on the invading army.

Apparently as a accommodation to Putin's attempts to portray Ukraine's legitimate government as radicals, Trump's proposal declares: "Any extremist ideology and actions must be condemned and forbidden." Apparently to highlight this element, it demands that "The nation will hold political contests in three months" of a truce. Meanwhile, the proposal places no obligation that the Russian leader jeopardize his regime by allowing votes in his own country.

Protection Assurances

Admittedly, the initiative includes the Russian Federation commit not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "establish in law its policy of non-aggression towards the EU and Ukraine". Yet given that Putin has broken similar accords in the history – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government pledged to honor Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for surrendering its historical atomic arms, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia committed to a truce and a return of captured land in the region to Kyiv – how should the international community have confidence in Putin this time?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on western security guarantees. While the plan warns of a "immediate coordinated military response" if the Russian Federation renew its military campaign, and includes that "The nation will receive strong defense commitments", the details vary from vague to concerning. The initiative would not only block Ukraine alliance membership but also preclude member states from stationing military personnel on Ukrainian territory, thus precluding the peacekeeping contingent, likely commanded by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to deter Russia from rebuilding his weakened troops, rearming, and resuming aggression.

Global Reaction

Another side agreement according to sources would offer Ukraine with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any later "serious, deliberate, and sustained military assault" by Russia on Ukraine "will be treated as an attack jeopardizing the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." That suggests a military response. However unlike a capable Ukraine's armed forces – the nation's primary defense against future hostilities – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would depend on the commitment of Western powers, including the US administration, to act militarily to Russia's hostilities, a response they have {not