Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a ability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
